Technology booms and crashes: What macro-economic patterns reveal about AI's trajectory
The current AI investment wave shares structural similarities with the dotcom era—$100 billion+ in annual VC funding, 35% market concentration in seven stocks, and infrastructure spending vastly exceeding revenue—but critical differences may determine whether it ends in crash, correction, or maturation. Three decades of technology boom-bust cycles reveal a consistent pattern: massive infrastructure overbuilding followed by 5-15 years of absorption, with 40-60% of companies surviving major crashes. The determining factors are whether real productivity exists beneath the speculation, how leveraged the financial system becomes, and whether losses concentrate in sophisticated institutions or retail investors.
